An End Of Year Thank You and Some Thoughts

I am optimistic about 2025, despite what's going on in the world. Here's why.

At times, it has been challenging to be optimistic in 2024. For me, as I am sure it has been for many of you, it has been a tough year on many fronts. In our year of elections, many of them didn’t go how I had hoped they would. Crisis and war continue in many parts of the world, from Gaza to Sudan, Ukraine to Haiti. Reading the news is exhausting. We continue to break climate records. Just yesterday, I read that coal use has reached a new peak and is expected to increase in 2025. We have the skills and know-how to change and make lives better for all of us, but greed, malice and, dare I say it, some human nature continue to impede progress that puts collective benefit over personal. What this means for all of us - the climate, how we address poverty and improve livelihoods - remains to be seen.

If you’re a reader of this blog, you know I tend to ‘stay in my lane’ and focus on music, culture and the creative economy as my lens of looking at the world. I do this because it is the only subject I feel confident enough to write about, and I am no diplomat, geopolitical expert or government scholar. I’m not going to change now - music is how I understand the world and also why I hope you’re here with me, reading.

On that note, let me be clear—I am optimistic about where we’re heading. And I want to impart this optimism in 2025. Yes, there are significant challenges, but there are also solutions. I believe—and have proof that this can be the case—that music and culture (or art, entertainment, and the creative economy) are one of those solutions. Music can and will drive positive change in 2025. So, as we close out this year, I want to focus on why I think this way.

First, a simple assertion that music is more a part of our collective lives than ever before. According to the IFPI (the trade body for the major record labels), music listenership grew by over 10% in 2023 (and once the data is compiled for 2024, I expect similar growth). The largest growth was in places with the least commercial music business infrastructure: Africa, Latin America, and South America. At the same time, what Will Page and Chris Dalla Riva refer to as ‘glocalization’ increased, meaning more people are listening to music in their local language. A person’s relationship with place and home often fosters stewardship - the desire to care - and I feel more folks listening to music in their mother tongue increases this connection with place and people. This also has economic implications due to migration and changing demographics. For example, Colombian artists generated more revenue through streaming from the United States than the total value of the Colombian music industry at home. This means, to me, that there is more opportunity for music to make more money for more people in more places.

At the same time, those responsible for investment in development are finally starting to see music and culture as infrastructure. The African Export-Import Bank launched CANEX (Creative African Nexus), pledging £2 billion for the creative economy. The International Finance Corporation (the private arm of the World Bank) has invested in the sector since 2022. The Inter-American Development Bank and the African Development Bank have also invested. This is new but fertile ground. 2025 will see more investment and more taking music and culture seriously as an investible development asset. This could mean more income for more people in more places.

This tells me that we are starting to recognize a few things. First, music has inherent economic value everywhere. Second, there is ROI in this investment. Third, more people are—in many ways—are listening (both to music and what music can do). So, as we close out 2024, I want to offer this hopeful trend: more people listening to music + more financial institutions interested in investing in it = increased opportunities for music to support broad economic development.

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I am also hopeful with how music is being invested in across cities, towns and places, because this increased in 2024. This year more cities (both governments and local sector organizations) pursued intentional, strategic plans to incorporate music as a local economic priority. Sound Diplomacy worked on several of them, but that’s not all. Many cities - mainly through local nonprofits - commissioned surveys to better understand the makeup of their musician population in the United States. The Music Cities Network recruited more cities in Europe; as did the UNESCO network of music cities. Landmark investments were made in Australia and there were positive developments in dozens of cities and countries, from Kingston, Ontario to Wellington, New Zealand, Fukuoka, Japan to a trio of reports written by brilliant music policy researcher Virgo Sillamaa in Aarhus, Berlin and Gent. Travelling around the world, I continued to meet dedicated folks who cared about their local music ecosystem. I believe 2025 will see more of this, which again is a reason to be cheerful.

Moreover, there’s been landmark studies and activations linking music’s potential impact to address both the climate emergency and improve health outcomes. Take the climate: From Coldplay to Billie Eilish, Massive Attack to Earth Percent, there’s more activity led by musicians and their teams to address carbon emissions in music. There are many leaders we should recognize here, from Julie’s Bicycle to Green Events Europe to a number of musicians and artists who set up the first music and entertainment council as part of COP. This direct link - how music can address the climate emergency - will expand in 2025. That’s good.

Same with healthcare. Look at interview below with the brilliant Dr. Francis Collins. Or the investments Universal Music Group are making in therapeutics. Or the evolving science of music’s impact on dementia or anxiety. Music is becoming a serious pursuit in science and medicine.

In 2025, not only will music continue to become more entwined in healthcare, but I believe that it can become a core tenet of how we improve efficiencies in preventative health. Social prescribing will continue to increase. We’re going to see more music programs in care homes and hospices, and more music incorporated into how we address and support neurodivergent education. We’re only starting to see the benefits here.

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So these are reasons why I am hopeful. But I am not naive, nor idealistic. On a macro-level, we’re sailing in uncharted waters, made worse because many people are made to believe that closing themselves off from the world is the best path to take economically, socially and environmentally. Social media continues to inflame tension as its business model and we’re seeing - especially with AI regulation and increased market consolidation in the music industry - that human beings and their creativity are being threatened, rather than supported by technological and corporate advancement. I am worried that the growth - every single day - of AI is reducing jobs and opportunities by removing the magic that is human creativity, from how we experience and enjoy creativity. Music is the closest thing to magic we will ever get (a phrase I have stolen from the brilliant Tom Gray). But I am no tech nimby. The power of AI, blockchain technology (outside of cryptocurrency) and other efficiencies to make life better is clear. But I hope that this is the goal - make life better - and I am not sure, for all those involved, it is. At the same time, I also see - like many other sectors - music continue to consolidate with the pipeline being further mo lded into an hourglass. There are terrific advocates working on these issues, and that will continue to increase in 2025. So again, hope triumphs for me.

Still, I have had an incredible 2024 and one I am thankful for. I got married, traveled the world because I wrote a book and have been given the opportunity - and privilege - to meet thousands of people to talk about music. I’ve had the book translated into 4 languages (with 3 more to come). I am healthy, lucky to live in a place with clean water and public services and surrounded by inspiring, creative friends and family. I have no reason but not to be hopeful. And that hope brings responsibility, one I take very, very seriously in 2025.

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So that’s it for me. I’ll be back in 2025 - writing as much as I am able. To close,I thought I’d focus more on others, rather than myself. So here are a few people and projects that have inspired me in 2024. You should all read their work:

• Michael Sheldrick
  - One of the smartest (and most optimistic) policy leaders I know. A true inspiration.

• Elena Polivtseva, Valentina Montalto and Lina Kirjazovaite - You can find them @culturepolicyroom - brilliant analysis on the value of culture.

• Will Page - A friend who continues to challenge me to be better.

• Tracy Hadden Loh - An inspiration to me on writing about cities and places.

• Virgo Sillamaa
  - A close friend and someone who continue to amazes me with his research, drive and insights (so good he gets two mentions).

• This study, led by Massey University in Wellington, NZ about live music.

• Al Letson - the host of Reveal, the best investigate podcast in the world.

• Grace Goodwin - who created an incredible resource called GENIE to expand gender equality in music.

• The work that Midia Consulting does - all of it is brilliant.

• Johanna Kouzmine-Karavaïeff (Suo) - who created the African Creators Alliance.

• The work that went into committing $100 billion to IDA at a time when international aid is reducing.

and many, many more.

That’s it. Happy Holidays. I want to thank each and every one of you, and implore you to share this hope and optimism for 2025. We can take our challenges seriously, but do so with pragmatism and optimism, rather than pessimism and nihilism. Because we have a lot of work to do, and a lot of good to create.

See you in 2025.

Shain x